Sports gambling can be extremely profitable if an individual know the secrets and techniques this “smart money” bettors apply to consistently make funds. One of the biggest secrets that smart money bettors use can be knowing when NOT to help bet.
Here’s a excellent case in point. My partner and i analyzed this Western side California vs. Louisville match, and concluded of which West Virginia had the particular edge in the video game. Nonetheless We also noticed that there was a whole lot of random and unstable factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not wager on that game. Here is my personal analysis I released just before the game:
West Virginia vs . Louisville
This sport offers all the symptoms of being one involving the best games regarding the year, having equally teams coming into the action 7-0. It’s #3 graded West Virginia versus. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s activity was a classic, along with West Virginia coming back from staying down large in the independence day 1 fourth to winning in overtime, however,.
So what’s the action appearance like this year?
If this sport were as played at a new fairly neutral field, West Virginia would certainly probably be a 4-6 point favorite. Since typically the game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is definitely on an unprecedented roll. They will haven’t lost since Oct. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they shed to Las vegas Tech. In the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 9 activities overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 10 STREET games.
Bookmaker stranieri of are some very extraordinary stats that tilt typically the scales in favor connected with WVU with regard to tonight’s online game. Plus, typically the extra bonus offer is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This might not seem like substantially, but in a in close proximity match-up such as this, that excess point could make the change between some sort of push in addition to a loss.
But some of us wonder what with regards to Louisville?
Louisville’s figures are generally almost as good like WVU’s -except when that comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their particular final 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That said, Louisville is all the same 7-3 ATS in their very last 10 home video games.
Plus if you’re leaning toward WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped in your own home since January 18, the year 2003! During this present run Louisville is averaging 49. 4 points per game in your house, while hitting only letting go of 15. six points per game on home. In case an individual did not do the math, that means considering that his or her last home damage they are yet to averaged beating their particular competitors by way of about 34 items per game.
In addition remarkable, the average line in these games has only recently been 21 points. That means that Louisville has beaten typically the spread, on average, simply by 13 things per sport at home given that the year 2003.
Wow… how can an individual not in favor of that?
Here’s just how…
Almost all of those stats were being built up during the 2004 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been closer to great than great. They are yet to acquired recent games through which they are yet to only scored 36, twenty-three, 24 points. And the game titles weren’t against Oh Saint. or Michigan. That they had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St.
In essence that this is still the close game to contact. Nonetheless the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s safety to carry the time. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under 30 points, then there’s no factor to think WVU can’t hold them to the particular low to mid 20’s. My honest professional recommendation is definitely to lay off this specific game and not bet at all. There will be better video games this weekend with more simple advantages.
The final score with this game was Louisville 46, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to go back a punt for the TD. The results was that West Virginia’s fringe had not been so big they will can still win soon after doing so many mistakes. By not betting on that video game, people serious regarding wagering saved money many people can offer better use on upcoming games.